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What kind of scenarios can this framework identify? Based on the confidence interval of the pooled estimate, differential increases in unemployment on the order of 1 percentage point would be detectable (this will change as new data comes in, so it is merely a ballpark estimate). If all workers within the top 10% were laid off, it would increase unemployment within the top quartile group from 3% to 43%, and it would increase aggregate unemployment from 4% to 13%.
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